Last Round of Constituency Polling from Lord Ashcroft

Lord Ashcroft's final round of constituency polling for the upcoming general election were released today. So this will be the last opportunity to get some decent constituency level data.

Looking at the numbers today there are a few decent opportunities.


One interesting poll is Sheffield Hallam, where Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats, is still trailing Labour by 1%. All other boroughs of Sheffield will go to Labour, and in Hallam they've been leading in the past 3 polls, though not by much right now.

One thing to mention is that in Ashcroft's polls they ask two questions, roughly

1. Who you gonna vote for?
2. Thinking about your own constituency specifically, who you gonna vote for?

Yes, it is the exact same question (they only get one vote). The theory is that the first question you may get more people going with their gut, but the second should give more accurate answer as to how people are going to actually vote when they show up to the polls.

In this constituency, you see 37%/30% Labour/Lib Dem split when question #1 is asked, with 20% going to the Conservatives. When you ask #2, you see the Conservatives drop to 15% and Lib Dem gain to 36%, with Labour steady at 37%. So essentially what this one comes down to is whether or not Conservative voters are going to strategically vote to give this constituency to the leader of the Liberal Democrats, denying Labour in the process.

It would be quite the upset, but with Labour ahead in the polls with a week to go, they could take this one. It's probably about a 50-50 - I find odds of 3.0 on Betfair or 2.75 on Betfair Sportsbook to be worth a look.



East Renfrewshire is one we recommended in the past at odds of 2.25 after the first April poll was released. Lord Ashcroft polled this constituency again, and it still shows SNP in the lead, though by only a 3% margin this time. With a >= 3% lead confirmed twice recently, and the election one week away, this one is still a great bet at Bet365 at generous odds of 1.9 for SNP.

Mentioned Norwich North a few days ago as well. Labour does better when asked the non-constituency question here, but only by another 2%. I just like seeing two confirming polls, with a 2% lead, one week away from the election. How can Labour not be the favorite here? You can still buy them at 2.1 on Bet365.