Current Prediction for Best Pic - BIRDMAN
From 538.com -
Here's a breakdown of how predictive each of the awards are in terms of winning the best pic. I added in the films that won, as this was put together before the DAGs and the BAFTAs.
This shows Birdman as a favorite, having won the big guild awards (PGA, SAG, DGA). Only 1 film has ever swept these three guilds and then gone on to lose best pic (Apollo 13). A second film, Chicago, managed to lose best director but win best pic after winning the 3. Otherwise every sweeping film wins Best Dir and Best Pic, if they were nominated (see Argo...).
There is no overlap between members voting on the Golden Globes and the Academy.
Historical look at the various awards -
Graph of probability of winning over time, according to odds at Bet365
Relevant Dates -
Sunday, January 11th - 2015 Golden Globe Awards (BP: Boyhood)
Thursday, January 15th - 20th Annual Critics' Choice Movie Awards (BP: Boyhood)
Saturday, January 24th - 2015 Producers Guild Awards (BP: Birdman)
Sunday, January 25th - 2015 Screen Actors Guild Awards (BP: Birdman)
Friday, January 30th - American Cinema Editors' ACE Eddie Awards (Drama: Boyhood, Comedy: The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Saturday, January 31st - Art Directors Guild Awards (Production in Contemporary Film: Birdman)
Saturday, January 31st - 2015 USC Scripter Awards (Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game)
Wednesday, February 4th - Visual Effects Society Awards (Visual Effects: The Dawn of the Planet of the Apes)
Saturday, February 7th - 2015 Directors Guild Awards (Best Picture: Birdman)
Sunday, February 8th - 2015 BAFTA Film Awards (Best Picture: Boyhood)
Saturday, February 14th - 2015 Writers Guild Awards (Birdman's script is DQ'ed - original screenplay: Budapest Hotel (Boyhood misses). Adapted Screenplay: Imitation Game)
Saturday, February 14th - Cinema Audio Society Awards (Sound Mixing: Birdman)
Sunday, February 15th - 2015 American Cinematographers Awards (Cinematography: Birdman)
Sunday, February 15th - Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards (Sound Editing: Birdman)
Tuesday, February 17th - Costume Designers Guild Awards (Costume Design: Birdman)
Saturday, February 21st - 2015 Independent Spirit Awards
Sunday, February 22nd - 87th Academy Awards begins at 7pm
On the BAFTAs win from Boyhood -
The membership of BAFTA, or the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, is comprised of roughly 6,500 people — almost exactly the same number as the Academy — and is believed to include most of the roughly 250 to 500 Academy members who are based in the U.K.
The best film BAFTA winner is determined by a popular vote, not a preferential ballot, as is used by the Academy and the PGA
Academy break-down (2015)
| Branch | % | 6028 |
| Actors | 20% | 1176 |
| Casting Directors | 0% | 10 |
| Cinematographers | 4% | 228 |
| Costume Designers | 2% | 108 |
| Designers | 4% | 262 |
| Directors | 6% | 377 |
| Documentary | 3% | 210 |
| Executives | 8% | 458 |
| Film Editors | 4% | 230 |
| Makeup Artists and Hairstylists | 2% | 135 |
| Music | 4% | 240 |
| Producers | 8% | 474 |
| Public Relatons | 6% | 380 |
| Short Films and Feature Animation | 6% | 366 |
| Sound | 7% | 418 |
| Visual Effects | 5% | 323 |
| Writers | 6% | 378 |
| Members-at-large | 4% | 255 |
