Academy Awards - Likely winners and Implications

Here's the list of expected winners, and the second most likely winners. I added some notes with my own views to the right. Most importantly for me, is the implications. I have this set up, so that regardless of who wins the award, I can immediately see the implications due to that win, which could be subtle (see Orig Screenplay upset). 

These categories are in the presentation order from last year, probably won't be the same order this year, but I don't think the presentation order has been leaked yet so I'll go with that for now. 

Academy Awards - Pre-Show Positioning

Just going over the categories that I am currently involved in -

Best Picture -
Put together a big arb here. My worst case is boyhood wins, and I still take a decent win. If Birdman wins, then it's a large win for me.

Best Director -
I have my money on Linklater, just due to the odds. If Inarritu wins for birdman I have a small win, if Linklater wins for Boyhood I have a decent win, and if anyone else upsets, it would be a relatively large loss (not gonna happen).

Cinematography -
I bought Birdman here as it hasn't lost a cinematography award going into the oscars. Its a larger bet for a smallish win if/when Birdman takes this award.

Adapted Screenplay -
Signs point to a win for The Imitation Game, and I have another larger bet at smallish odds for that film to win.

Sound Mixing -
This can often go to the film with the most overall support as people don't really know how to vote for sound. There are a few contenders and I'm hoping Birdman sneaks in with the win. I have a smaller bet on Birdman at longer odds. 

The Grammy's

Just took a quick look at this yesterday. I should have sold more for album of the year, there was some sucker in the market buying Beyonce at stupid odds, I was just afraid that I couldn't hedge it.

Probably going to have to stop worrying about that to be able to make any real money at this, when I can sell at very high value prices.

Album of the Year	Betfair	Bet365	Total
Beyonce	-234.25	185	-49.25
Other	333.75	-148	185.75
Song Of The Year	Betfair	Bet365	Total
Stay With Me	-107.86	119.7	11.84
Chandelier	201.64	-210	-8.36
Other	376.49	-210	166.49