Conservative Majority

What a surprise - Conservatives won a majority. The polls never saw it coming.

Couple key factors that the polls missed lead to a conservative majority last night.

• Bigger CON/LAB swing than expected
• Bigger CON/LD swing than expected
• Bigger SNP/LAB swing than expected

This lead to a wipeout of the Liberal Democrats, Labour losing around 25 seats, and the Conservatives there to pick up the majority.

Conservatives Bets

Nearly all came in as they were overperforming for the night.


SNP Bets

Same story here, SNP was overperforming and nearly all these bets came through. 

Labour Bets

The toxic part of the portfolio. Only one Labour bet came through as they really underperformed at the polls.

Seat Totals

I had a couple seat over/under bets as well. My over on Labour clearly lost, but my over on SNP was an easy win. 

I picked up some more over/under bets over the night using the live model being featured on 538.com, which ended up being a mistake. The model was very slow to update to the trends over the night so I never should have trusted it. Those bets were losers, and overall I was down a bit on seat totals.

Overall

Overall I had a fine night but was hoping for a bit more. The way that I structured my portfolio of constituency bets ultimately saved me as there were some big swings that were not predicted by the polls. 

Total ROI for the night was 17%. ROI for the Constituency Bets alone was 22%.