The UK Election is tomorrow. Here I'll outline my position going into the election, and look for one last chance for some good value bets.
Lets take a look at the best bets based on two of the popular models - UK Electoral Forecast (affiliated with Nate Silver) and Electoral Calculus - both of which publish their odds of win for each constituency.
Here are all constituencies where these two models agree that there is a > 10% mispricing by Bet365, accounting for paying the vig as well.
So we are looking at the blue cells, and the larger the number, the more out of line the bookie odds are vs the models' forecasts. Don't be fooled by Bradford West - the models don't understand that there is an additional party running here (Respect Party) and they are overvaluing Labour as a result. The Edinburgh South candidate is embroiled in a twitter scandal so this is having an effect on the odds that the models are not accounting for.
You can see that the models are mostly highlighting spots where they expect SNP to overperform relative to bookie odds. If that is your view, there are lots of good bets available - start with Edinburgh North and Leith. I've highlighted three bets above that would diversify across the three main parties and provide strong value according to the models.
Here's my constituency bets going into tomorrow's big day - you can see the odds I am backing at, the current odds, and how much the odds have moved in my favour (or not).
* added small bit of Rotherham - Labour
If I mark these bets using Bet365's own odds, or the probabilities from Electoral Calculus, then I have an ROI of about 15-16%. If I use Nate's model's probabilities, I have ROI of 49% !? which just goes to show that his odds are probably too extreme in many cases (other models' likely winners are considered locks according to his model).
Seat Totals Prediction
I didn't spend nearly as much time trying to figure out seat totals. Labour most seats seemed like it had some good value earlier in the election cycle but it is not expected to come through. I halved my position on that and don't have much of a position here relative to constituencies - but just for the hell of it this is my seat totals prediction -
Conservatives - 274
Labour - 270
Lib Dems - 28
SNP - 55
Plaid Cymru - 3
UKIP - 2
Other - 2
Greens - 1
Lets take a look at the best bets based on two of the popular models - UK Electoral Forecast (affiliated with Nate Silver) and Electoral Calculus - both of which publish their odds of win for each constituency.
Here are all constituencies where these two models agree that there is a > 10% mispricing by Bet365, accounting for paying the vig as well.
So we are looking at the blue cells, and the larger the number, the more out of line the bookie odds are vs the models' forecasts. Don't be fooled by Bradford West - the models don't understand that there is an additional party running here (Respect Party) and they are overvaluing Labour as a result. The Edinburgh South candidate is embroiled in a twitter scandal so this is having an effect on the odds that the models are not accounting for.
You can see that the models are mostly highlighting spots where they expect SNP to overperform relative to bookie odds. If that is your view, there are lots of good bets available - start with Edinburgh North and Leith. I've highlighted three bets above that would diversify across the three main parties and provide strong value according to the models.
Here's my constituency bets going into tomorrow's big day - you can see the odds I am backing at, the current odds, and how much the odds have moved in my favour (or not).
If I mark these bets using Bet365's own odds, or the probabilities from Electoral Calculus, then I have an ROI of about 15-16%. If I use Nate's model's probabilities, I have ROI of 49% !? which just goes to show that his odds are probably too extreme in many cases (other models' likely winners are considered locks according to his model).
Seat Totals Prediction
I didn't spend nearly as much time trying to figure out seat totals. Labour most seats seemed like it had some good value earlier in the election cycle but it is not expected to come through. I halved my position on that and don't have much of a position here relative to constituencies - but just for the hell of it this is my seat totals prediction -
Conservatives - 274
Labour - 270
Lib Dems - 28
SNP - 55
Plaid Cymru - 3
UKIP - 2
Other - 2
Greens - 1
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