Here we go
Bet365 is (surprisingly) offering in play betting, Betfair is as well.
There could be opportunities for betting by quickly analyzing the results coming in, and then hitting the markets with odds that haven't updated yet. I'll be watching for opportunities as the results come in.
FiveThirtyEight has a great summary of what and when to expect the various constituencies. It should work as a great roadmap as far as predicting how the night will go.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-on-election-night-in-the-uk/
I managed to get some SNP >= 48.5 seats @ 2.10 when Bet365 opened their in play lines. The line immediately moved to 1.9 afterwards, which is still kind of generous - every model on May2015.com has SNP winning at least 52 seats.
This looks like the closest UK election of the past 40 years, and results should start trickling in around 5:30pm EST, going until around 1am.
First interesting result will be Nuneaton @ 8pm - Labour is expected to take this seat, but Conservatives have around a 25% chance to take it.
5pm update
Exit Polls -
CON 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
LD 10
PC 4
UKIP 2
Other 19
Pretty surprising exit polls show a strong win for Conservatives (most seats at least - not a majority though). Liberal Democrats lose more than expected and Labour underperforms as well. SNP wins nearly every seat in Scotland (59). We will see if these exit polls are correct or not, but it will be a few hours.
Bet365 is (surprisingly) offering in play betting, Betfair is as well.
There could be opportunities for betting by quickly analyzing the results coming in, and then hitting the markets with odds that haven't updated yet. I'll be watching for opportunities as the results come in.
FiveThirtyEight has a great summary of what and when to expect the various constituencies. It should work as a great roadmap as far as predicting how the night will go.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-to-expect-on-election-night-in-the-uk/
I managed to get some SNP >= 48.5 seats @ 2.10 when Bet365 opened their in play lines. The line immediately moved to 1.9 afterwards, which is still kind of generous - every model on May2015.com has SNP winning at least 52 seats.
This looks like the closest UK election of the past 40 years, and results should start trickling in around 5:30pm EST, going until around 1am.
First interesting result will be Nuneaton @ 8pm - Labour is expected to take this seat, but Conservatives have around a 25% chance to take it.
5pm update
Exit Polls -
CON 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
LD 10
PC 4
UKIP 2
Other 19
Pretty surprising exit polls show a strong win for Conservatives (most seats at least - not a majority though). Liberal Democrats lose more than expected and Labour underperforms as well. SNP wins nearly every seat in Scotland (59). We will see if these exit polls are correct or not, but it will be a few hours.
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