Should have posted this a while ago - things were busy with being in Ottawa, and my condo in Toronto flooded. Better late than never?
Oscars night was a lot of fun, you can see in the previous post a great breakdown for live-betting the event, which I was doing, and worked out pretty well.
The big shock of the night for me was the Boyhood miss on Film Editing. There was 12 years of film to edit down into a movie - this thing should have been a lock for that award. After seeing this miss, it was pretty clear that there is not very much support for this film in the academy, and it is not going to take home Best Director or Best Picture.
As you can tell by my previous posts, my main call of the night was Birdman for Best Picture. I got into a big arb taking advantage of the swing in odds after the DGA announcements, and pushed most of the arb into a bet on Birdman to win the big one. To me it seemed very likely that it would win Best Pic after sweeping the guild awards.
I also was going long Linklater (Boyhood) for Best Director. I liked that position because it was a natural hedge to my Birdman best pic bet - if Boyhood were to win Best Pic then it would also be likely to win Best Director. Also, I see Boyhood Best Director, Birdman Best Pic as a more likely BP/BD split than the other way around.
However after the Film Editing miss for Boyhood I moved as much as I could onto Inarritu for Best Director - and effectively canceled out my pre-show position in Best Director, avoiding the loss that I would have had there. I also continued to buy Birdman for Best Pic / Best Director throughout the night, buying at odds as low as 1.25 right before the final announcement.
I had some small positions in other awards but the main story of the night for me was just the big Best Picture bet, everything else was pretty much a wash. This was a very nice start to getting back into this betting stuff, and I designed some very useful spreadsheets for tracking my pnl and liquidity on the various sites.
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